A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
